Traditionally new crude oil reaches the market in December, though by this time of the year crude oil is only trickling in and not at the volumes that would satisfy demand. Prices continue to be firm on the all-time high level and many users who are in need are buying.
Continued lack of supply, along with strong demand, has kept prices firming on a weekly basis. Bad weather in the growing regions will have an impact on what will be harvested for the traditional end of year supply.
Reports continue to state that there are limited quantities of oil available. Prices for both items continue to rise.
Offers are continuing to be made, although at high levels. Traditionally, there is a feeling that when new oil enters the market in July/August prices will soften. However, inventories of both crude and refined oil are low so buyers are waiting to see what will happen in this market.
One dealer has reported Eucalyptus production in 2015 was 8,500 tons, in 2016 only 7,000 tons. This dealer is also advising that in certain growing areas, access to the mountains has been banned by the government as a fire prevention method. Combining this with the bad weather earlier this year, production has been far less than usual. Prices are climbing on a weekly basis.
Prices continue to firm as supplies are being exhausted. With spring collection still two months away we do not see any easing of prices.
Crude Eucalyptus stocks are limited as snow and cold weather have hampered the collection of leaves during the normal period at the end of 2016. Prices continue to climb and we are aware of orders being defaulted. With continued reports of damaged trees, even though the next collections begin in May, we do not foresee any relief soon.
Continued reports of shortages in the growing region have led to higher prices for every subsequent inquiry.
Reports continue to state that farmers were unable to collect and process leaves to make oil. With a revised tax policy in place, prices have firmed and there doesn’t appear to be any relief until June/July 2017.
Reports that inclement weather has impeded production are again being circulated. Heavy rains and cold weather in the growing regions have caused prices to firm after a short interval of softening. Currency fluctuations may ease some of these price increases.
Indications are that by late November / early December a significant (?) quantity of oil will enter the market. The impact of this anticipated expansion of supply has been felt through a slight easing of prices. Reports state that farmers are selling stocks of crude oil now in anticipation of further reductions. Any spurt in demand before the end of the year will likely cut into these price reductions.
Reports continue to state that the supply is tight but new oil is expected to enter the market late November and early December.
New oil is beginning to enter the market as there are unsolicited offers. These new offers are still high as reports continue to say that oil is limited. We are being advised that prices will not ease until October.
Prices continue to be firm as suppliers claim there is low carryover and limited availability. New Oil normally reaches the market in July but this year has been anything but normal. Prices are expected to remain firm through July/August at least.
First hand accounts of the eucalyptus trees in southern Yunnan describe severe damage caused by cold. Pictures show Eucalyptus trees either barren or covered only in dead, dried leaves. The exact extent of the damage and potential for recovery is unknown but we foresee an increase in price at least for the short term. If new Oil hits the market at its traditional time in July prices might begin to soften.
December reports of increasing demand and firming prices from one of our suppliers have turned out to be correct. Prices for Eucalyptus Oil and Eucalyptol have increased and availability is limited. It is believed that these firmer prices should drive up availability after the Chinese Lunar New Year.
Pricing for Eucalyptus oil has softened slightly as new Oil has entered the market. Reports from one supplier, however, claim that demand is increasing and pricing is firm. Eucalyptol pricing has also softened.
With new Oil entering the market, we hope to see quality issues on Eucalyptus Oil begin to diminish. With this influx we have seen a slight softening in pricing from origin. Historically, this softening continues through February but the last two years have deviated from that trend with rising prices. Eucalyptol continues to follow the price for Eucalyptus Oil.