There are indications that the upcoming crop will be large as reports claim large plantings have taken place. With issues on Synthetic L-Menthol not yet resolved, it is anticipated that prices for Natural Menthol will stay firm as long as these issues persist.
We have reports that indicate low demand from China for Menthol powder has lessened production of DMO and Menthone. Accordingly current prices for DMO are high. With new crop not due until June the report states that prices will continue to firm.
We have reports that state demand from China for mint product has been constant even though there is the extra tariff on Chinese Menthol. These reports also indicate physical stocks held at MCX are down and eventually must increase. Prices for crude oil are firm and many suppliers expect them to rise before years end.
Prices have recently spiked up. Speculation on the MCX, strong sales of powder to China, and strong demand cited.
Synthetic Menthol slackened. While new production has been stated to start in July, skepticism is rampant. Prices have stabilized as farmers are not will to lower prices.
The most recent report of a major supplier indicates that the total crop for 2016 will be between 38000 & 40000 metric tons. These figures are based on surveys and discussions with others in the growing regions. Based on the limited distillation that has taken place, the supplier reports that yield per acre is down. Since the monsoons have not occurred, it is possible that the crop will be less than estimated. With a large portion of new oil set to reach the market by mid to end July, we would expect to see prices fall.
A reliable supplier reported that demand was strong in April and early May. Since new Oil was not available, this demand was met with stocks held in the MCX warehouse. This same supplier estimates that the total Mentha arvensis crop is 45,000 metric tons, a 50% increase from numbers given in April. Even with the estimated large crop, the supplier believes that prices will firm due to low carryover and strong demand. Prices are expected to ease in June and July when large amounts of Oil usually reach the market.
Reports have given conflicting information on the size of the upcoming Cornmint crop. One group estimates a 33% reduction, another a 25% increase. More information will be available after March once an estimate of planted acreage has been made. Cornmint Oil prices have risen recently, with increased demand and limited stocks given as a reason.
