The grass is now being cut in Yunnan, but oil content low. After the rainy season is over, oil in September should be of better quality. Reports from China claim that Indonesian crop is very large and with lower labor costs, prices should ease.
New crop oil should start to be available end-April/early-May, but limited. When demand increases, prices should continue to rise.
Reports continue to advise that there is very little stock left. With new season oil not available before July/August, we do not foresee any chance prices will ease any time soon.
Reports continue to state that current crop will be small, hampered by rain. They also advise that factories are not willing to negotiate, believing prices will continue to firm.
With the crop season over, and prices continuing to firm, reports indicate factories not willing to speculate. It is expected that prices will eventually stabilize in the next few months.
With heavy rains during the growing season it is no surprise that this year’s total production was less than last years. Prices have stayed firm but any change in demand will cause prices to rise.
Here too, rains have lessened Chinese crop. Prices are firm and reports indicate that they will continue to rise.
With offers from China non-existent, pressure on Indonesian has seen prices climb. Availability is still an issue.
Rain here in the growing regions keeping production down. Processers in China have imported oil from Indonesia in order to meet demand both at home and overseas. This has kept pricing firm and availability is an issue.
Demand for Citronella is high with new oil to be available from July onwards. Pricing should be firm until then.
As mentioned above, prolonged heavy rains kept output down. One report indicates total produced in 2017 was only 40% of 2016’s total and only 25% of 2015’s. Besides the rains, low prices have discouraged farmers. With the extraordinary demand arising this year, one would expect that there will be an overabundance in 2019, starting the cycle again.
With reports that there is no carryover in the hands of factories prices continue to firm. There is a limited arrival of oil in the market in April so prices are expected to continue to firm.
Chinese production in 2016 was approximately two thirds of that of 2015. This was due to a combination of low prices discouraging farmers from distilling, environmental protection policies, and bad weather. With Indonesia acting as an alternative to China in 2016, supply was stable. Now with steady rains, their supply has become limited. As a result, prices have increased.
Production was reduced in November. Prices have firmed and are expected to increase further.
While the 2016 crop in China was small, Indonesia kept prices stable. With strong demand reported, prices for Citronella Oil have started to firm.
A previous report indicated that farmers had focused on rubber cultivation, devoting less time to Citronella. Prices have remained stable due to large amounts of oil being available from Indonesia.
Rain in the growing region of Yunnan has curtailed production. Crop season begins in July, so we do not foresee any disruption as Indonesian Oil is readily available.
This winter’s cold weather in Southern China killed the grasses there, greatly diminishing the Spring crop. With the new crop not available until August/September prices are expected to firm.