With more acreage planted and cooperative weather, yield per acre has increased. While there has been some softening of prices, reports claim demand has kept prices high. This has encouraged farmers to hold onto oil in the expectation of selling at higher prices.
Reports still claim there is a very large crop, the estimates remain at 45,000 tons. If the weather cooperates ecpect prices to soften.
With the high prices for last year’s production, farmers were enthusiastic so increased acreage planted. Total yield estimated to be 45,000 tons a substantial increase. Reports state tht stocks ath the MCX must be replenished and that 1,000 tons have already been pre-sold to China. This has kept current pricing from declining rapidly. However the belief is that prices will become substantially lower in the next 2-3 months, subject to weather.
Reports from India are disturbing. Food crop harvest were later than normal this year, delaying Arvensis. With high prices of Natural Menthol from last year estimates suggest that this year’s crop might be as much as 25% greater than last. That alone, with the increase in production of synthetic Menthol have some suggesting supply will be far greater than demand for Menthol. They are also hinting that this will cause adulteration of Arvensis.
Prices on Mentha Arvensis have increased over the past few weeks, and no signs of softening exist at present. With the current price level encouraging farmers, it is expected that acreage planted will be some 10% greater than last year.
There are indications that the upcoming crop will be large as reports claim large plantings have taken place. With issues on Synthetic L-Menthol not yet resolved, it is anticipated that prices for Natural Menthol will stay firm as long as these issues persist.
We have reports that indicate low demand from China for Menthol powder has lessened production of DMO and Menthone. Accordingly current prices for DMO are high. With new crop not due until June the report states that prices will continue to firm.
We have reports that state demand from China for mint product has been constant even though there is the extra tariff on Chinese Menthol. These reports also indicate physical stocks held at MCX are down and eventually must increase. Prices for crude oil are firm and many suppliers expect them to rise before years end.
Prices have recently spiked up. Speculation on the MCX, strong sales of powder to China, and strong demand cited.
Synthetic Menthol slackened. While new production has been stated to start in July, skepticism is rampant. Prices have stabilized as farmers are not will to lower prices.
The most recent report of a major supplier indicates that the total crop for 2016 will be between 38000 & 40000 metric tons. These figures are based on surveys and discussions with others in the growing regions. Based on the limited distillation that has taken place, the supplier reports that yield per acre is down. Since the monsoons have not occurred, it is possible that the crop will be less than estimated. With a large portion of new oil set to reach the market by mid to end July, we would expect to see prices fall.
A reliable supplier reported that demand was strong in April and early May. Since new Oil was not available, this demand was met with stocks held in the MCX warehouse. This same supplier estimates that the total Mentha arvensis crop is 45,000 metric tons, a 50% increase from numbers given in April. Even with the estimated large crop, the supplier believes that prices will firm due to low carryover and strong demand. Prices are expected to ease in June and July when large amounts of Oil usually reach the market.
Reports have given conflicting information on the size of the upcoming Cornmint crop. One group estimates a 33% reduction, another a 25% increase. More information will be available after March once an estimate of planted acreage has been made. Cornmint Oil prices have risen recently, with increased demand and limited stocks given as a reason.