On April 10TH the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasted a total of 45 million boxes to be produced in Florida split between Midseason and Navel (19 million) and Valencia (26 million). This is compared to 69 million boxes from the 2017 crop. Early reports from Brazil also indicate a smaller crop than in 2017, but “official” forecasts won’t be available until May.
Prices continue to firm, as supplies are dwindling. There has been no encouraging news from either Israel or South Africa.
The recent cold wave that sent temperatures falling luckily stayed north of the major growing regions, saving whatever crop remained. The USDA reports no change in January crop figures from December.
The Orange Oil situation continues most erratically, balancing between a substantial Brazilian crop versus ever discouraging news from Florida. Substantial activity has caused both the oil and terpenes to have firmed in the past weeks. We are making no predictions.
We have seen increased activity in this market over the past several weeks.
Several processors and dealers have all forwarded the information that Florida’s crop is off by 50%. Extent of tree damage is still not finalized. Some indications are that Brazil’s production will help fill the shortfall, but time will tell the accuracy of this estimate.
As of this writing, total damage to Florida’s Orange and Grapefruit crops has not been established. Estimates on Orange run anywhere from 30% to 75% of crop damaged while Grapefruit seems to have survived better. It will take some time before actual figures are in though it is safe to say that yield, which was originally greater than last year’s 68 million boxes, will be significantly lower.
Reports continue to advise that the Brazilian crop will be quite large. Good weather conditions have led to a large amount of fruit becoming available. With reports of unfulfilled contracts that need to be satisfied, prices may not soften as much as some might hope. It appears that the major processors have not yet made any offers. Prices have eased slightly.
The major growing region has experienced poor weather. Prices have firmed and are expected to remain so for the foreseeable future.
Reports indicate that the upcoming Brazilian Crop is much larger than last year’s. Prices have started to ease for both in an attempt to reduce high priced inventories before pricing for the new crop is set.
There are indications that this year’s crop in Brazil will be larger than last year’s but volumes at other origins are still limited. Prices for both have eased slightly.
With demand for juice down, greening concerns in the U.S. and Latin America, and acreage being converted to other uses, oil for both pink and white is extremely limited. Prices continue to rise.
For the moment Orange prices seem to have stabilized, as offers are coming from dealers. With the Brazilian crop due shortly, there might be unfounded optimism that prices will ease.
The USDA’s March estimate for Florida’s 2016/2017 crop was below 70 million boxes, down from last year’s total of 81 million. Brazil is estimating that fresh fruit production for the 2016/2017 crop will be down from 2015/2016, an already low year. Availability of both oil and terpenes is limited and pricing continues to firm.
The limited availability and high prices in this market continue.
The USDA has reported that this year’s Florida crop is the smallest since the early 1960s. This along with limited offers coming out of Brazil have caused prices to continue to firm.
The USDA estimates that total production for their season’s crop is 72 million boxes, almost 10 million less than last year’s total. The continued loss of trees due to greening as well as the advanced age of healthy trees have contributed to the shortfall. Estimates out of Brazil are 210 million boxes, down from a normal harvest of 300 million. Prices continue to rise and there does not appear to be any relief this year.
Some reports state that this year’s crop will be 10% larger than that of last years. Even if this is the case though, it would be considered 20% smaller than “normal.” Preliminary results indicate a yield of 5.3-5.5kg per ton of fruit, up from last year’s yield of 4.5kg/ton. Prices should be stable.
Prices continue to firm.
There seems to be no high that cannot be surpassed for these products. Prices continue to climb as there does not appear to be any relief soon.
Prices have continued to firm on indications that Florida’s crop will be smaller than anticipated. Prices and availability are not expected to ease.
Prices continue to firm for both Oil and Terpenes. This situation is expected to carry over into 2017.
Reports from Brazil indicate that sellers are keeping prices firm. There is no relief from Florida. We expect this to continue until the 2017 crops and are doubtful that prices will ease much even then.
Situation unchanged. Prices are firm and supply is limited.
At the time of writing, several major consumers of Orange Oil & Terpenes had their procurement teams in Brazil negotiating quantities and pricing for the remainder of 2016. Rumors indicate that pricing is still very firm. With offers from Brazil lacking, we expect prices to be firm through the end of 2016.
The April report from the US Department of Agriculture indicated that this year’s crop will be 78 million boxes, some 22% less than in 2014-2015. Reports from Brazil show that major producers are not offering Oil. Prices continue to firm.
The dual influences of Citrus greening and waning demand for Orange Juice have kept prices firm. One broker reports that offers from source are only against specific inquiries, confirming the lack of availability.
The shortage of supply and rising prices for these two ingredients continues. This situation is likely to persist for the time being.
Prices are nearing record levels as we continue to get bad news from growing regions. Florida’s crop, soon to be over, was the smallest in recent history. With Brazil’s crop not due to finish for several months we expect that supply will not cover normal demand.
Spain, Brazil, California, and Southern Italy have all been experiencing bad weather, leading to reports of large reductions in crop sizes. Argentina, the largest producer, reported a crop 10-15% larger than last year’s, slightly offsetting the losses elsewhere.
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