6/3/21: Fundecitrus first Brazilian orange crop forecast from May 27, 2021 has come in; indicates a total of 294.17 million boxes for the 2021/2022 crop season. This represents a 9.51% increase vs. previous crop year of 268.63 million boxes, though the increase still is lower than average for Brazil, if you look at the past 10 seasons (-10.53%).

This means the crop will mainly depend on the first and second bloom for this season, as the 3rd and 4th bloom the fruit is smaller with fewer yields. It is expected that this year’s yield will be better than the last. Drop rate of fruit is estimated at 6-7%, mainly due to the increasing prevalence of greening and drought effects.

Fundecitrus forecast is based on mapping all citrus farms in Brazil every 3 years; next one is scheduled for August 2021

4/23/21: Fundecitrus report for the upcoming 2021 – 2022 Brazilian Orange crop is due May 10th. As of right now, the crop is estimated to be between 290 and 320 million boxes. Prices are starting to increase slightly again, mainly due to anticipation behind the official report’s release. Brazilian rainfall for next week is forecast around 1 – 2mm, which can affect the output of fruit for this new season. Hurricane forecast for Florida also recently indicated that it will have an above average season in 2021, citing the potential absence of El Nino as a main factor. This has also led to speculation on the upcoming Florida crop, which starts in Q4.

4/15/21: Due to COVID-19 labor issues, Belize has experienced a delay in its orange collection process.

2/16/21: Brazil’s orange crop has experienced a reduction in aldehyde levels when compared to previous years, whereas Mexico is just starting to enter its peak season and aldehyde levels have risen across the board. Varietals in Mexico are looking to be especially strong in terms of their aldehyde content.